‘Makkah Defence Agreement signatories unlikely to intervene in localised conflicts specific to one member’
A panel discussion was hosted by the International Dialogue and Diplomacy Foundation, chaired by Ambassador R. Swaminathan, offered a detailed breakdown of the Makkah Defence Agreement, signed on August 7, 2026, by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
Panelists including IDDF Director Dr Omair Anas and Dr Samuel Ramani, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services, examined the geopolitical context, defence integration, and regional ramifications of the treaty, concluding that while the pact marks a historic realignment, it functions primarily as a framework for layered deterrence and defence-industrial cooperation rather than a unified operational army.
Dr Ramani framed the drivers behind the agreement within the broader context of evolving global and regional dynamics. He pointed out that as the United States has become a net energy exporter, its motivation to directly mediate middle eastern conflicts has diminished, compelling Gulf nations to take greater ownership of their security architecture during the ongoing Iran war and persistent Houthi strikes on maritime and energy assets. Dr Ramani also highlighted the impressive diplomatic reconciliation underlying the pact, noting how the three signatories successfully put aside deep historical rifts stemming from the 2013 Egyptian coup and the 2017 Qatar blockade. Building on this, Dr Anas focused on regional security anxieties, arguing that Israeli military expansionism has generated widespread panic across the Arab and Islamic world, driving these nations toward collective measures. Anas characterised the treaty as a modern equivalent of the Baghdad Pact, a burden-sharing arrangement designed to support Western strategic interests while simultaneously creating a regional balance against Israeli influence.
Addressing the defence mechanisms of the pact, both speakers analysed the practical limits of its collective deterrence clause. Dr Ramani explained that the operational value of the agreement rests in military-technological integration rather than mutual battlefield deployment. He detailed how the treaty synergizes Saudi Arabia’s financial wealth, Turkey’s advanced defense industry including drones and naval systems and Pakistan’s substantial military manpower alongside its nuclear deterrent. Dr Anas expanded on the challenges of operationalising mutual defence by highlighting the divergent threat perceptions among the three nations. He noted that while Saudi Arabia is focused on countering Iranian proxy networks and managing its rivalry with the UAE, Turkey and Pakistan are chiefly concerned with preventing a total collapse of the Iranian state, which could trigger severe border instability and domestic turmoil.
Consequently, both panelists agreed that the signatories are unlikely to intervene in localised conflicts specific to one member, such as the Kashmir dispute or Kurdish border operations.
Focusing on the strategic implications for New Delhi, Ambassador R. Swaminathan highlighted that the agreement formalises long-standing military ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that date back to the 1960s, while significantly elevating Islamabad’s regional profile. He observed that this poses a diplomatic challenge for India, as Pakistan stands to benefit from Saudi funding and access to Turkish defence technologies, including next-generation stealth fighter programs.
However, Ambassador Swaminathan emphasised that India’s strategic standing in Riyadh remains secure. India’s institutionalised Strategic Partnership Council with Saudi Arabia, backed by extensive trade relations and joint military exercises, provides a solid buffer. Given the immense economic disparity between India and Pakistan, Swaminathan concluded that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to compromise its vital relationship with New Delhi, though India must remain vigilant regarding technology transfers into the region.
